NameFew

How accurate is GoDaddy's domain appraisal?

Nobody has published a test, and we haven't run one either. Here is what the tool says it does, where estimates like it go wrong, and a ten-minute check.

We don't know how accurate GoDaddy's domain appraisal is, because nobody has published a test and we haven't run one. GoDaddy says the tool works best on common English-language names and calls its number an estimate. Treat it as one rough opinion, and compare it with real sales before you believe it.

You've typed a name into GoDaddy's free appraisal, it said something like $1,200, and now you're wondering if that's real. Fair. Here's what we can say, what we can't, and how to check it yourself in ten minutes.

What GoDaddy says it is

GoDaddy's own page for the tool (the domain value appraisal) describes a model that breaks the name into words and is trained on a large amount of data, combining machine learning with real-market sales. It says the estimate does best when the name is common and English-language, and that it works better when the wording includes search-friendly terms. It's an automated estimate, labelled as one.

That's a reasonable design. It's also, in outline, what every automated appraiser does, including ours.

What we have not measured

Here's the part most articles on this topic skip. Is GoDaddy's number accurate? To say so you'd need a test: take a set of names with GoDaddy's estimates, wait until some of them sell, and compare the two. We have not done that, and so we are not going to tell you GoDaddy's estimates are good or bad. We checked whether it was possible. GoDaddy's public auction files include a "valuation" field for names currently up for auction, but they show the current bid, not a sale price, so there's nothing yet to compare the field with. Matching it to later sales needs a snapshot and months of waiting, and we haven't built that sample.

What we did measure, on our own tool, is in are AI domain appraisals accurate. On 300 unseen .com sales, an AI opinion ordered names by price only as well as "shorter is higher" (rank correlation 0.21 against 0.24), and it missed the expensive names the worst. We have no reason to think GoDaddy's model is immune to the same problem. We have no evidence it isn't either.

Where an estimate like this goes wrong

These are failure modes of automated estimates in general, which we can see in our own testing:

The ten-minute check

  1. Write down GoDaddy's estimate.
  2. Find five to ten recent sales of names like yours: same extension, same number of words, similar length. The method is here.
  3. Look at their spread. If the estimate lands inside the middle of the real sales, it's a fair guess. If it's far outside, believe the sales.
  4. If the estimate is much higher than your comps, don't price off it. If it's much lower and your name is short or a single word, ask someone who handles that kind of name.

Our advice

Use GoDaddy's estimate the way you'd use any free tool: as a prompt to go and look at real sales, not as an answer. And be wary of anyone, including us, who tells you a number from a screen is the price. We're trying to find out whether people can do better where the machines go blind. The game is the quickest way to see how hard it is.

Notes. We have no relationship with GoDaddy. The description of the tool is taken from GoDaddy's own public page and may change. If we ever run a real test, with the test set named, we'll update this page with the number.